Executive Summary
BFCM 2025 ended nearly flat versus 2024, but the story beneath the headline reveals important shifts in consumer behavior and channel performance:
- DTC finished close to 2024 levels (95% pacing)
- New customer sales: +10% vs 2024
- Repeat customer sales: 78.6% of 2024 volume (won’t catch up)
- Ad spend: +5% vs 2024
- The gap: Repeat buyers are waiting longer to convert
The pattern this year mirrored 2024 in one key way: a slow start that flipped into a surge once promotions hit. But unlike 2024, repeat buyers never fully re-entered at scale.
Early November Patterns: High Engagement, Delayed Conversion
Through the first week of November, overall sales paced at ~80% of 2024 levels. The gap wasn’t due to acquisition slowdown—new customer sales tracked at 99% of 2024. The issue: repeat customers hadn’t started spending yet.
Week 1 Highlights (Nov 3-11):
- Overall Sales: 81% vs 2024 pacing
- New Customer Sales: 99% vs 2024—acquisition efficiency holding steady
- Repeat Customer Sales: 62% vs 2024—main source of the gap
- Ad Spend: +8% YoY—brands spending more to maintain topline
- MER: Flat for new customers, lower overall
Paid Ads Behavior
- CTR way up: Fewer impressions but many more clicks—creative and targeting pulling harder
- Effective CPC down: Spend up slightly while clicks up significantly—buying clicks cheaper on average
- Effective CPM up: Fewer impressions means higher cost per thousand
- Sales not scaling with clicks: Clicks +52% vs sales +6%—post-click performance (CVR and/or AOV) softer
Email & SMS Behavior
- Email clicks: +144% YoY
- SMS clicks: +393% YoY
- Yet attributed sales down ~30%
Engagement is massive, but conversion is delayed. Customers are browsing, not buying—holding out for stronger offers.
The pattern from 2024 repeated: a slow start that could flip into a record surge once Black Friday promotions hit. Whether that would happen again depended on how quickly repeat buyers re-entered.
In short: Paid is steady. Engagement is strong. Conversion is late. The demand is there—it just hasn’t been unlocked yet.
Using AI to Analyze Benchmarks: Atlas Browser
In late November, I needed to dig into our latest BFCM benchmark data to write this post. But it was late, and I was lazy.
Instead of reading the charts, I opened Atlas, pulled up the dashboard, and asked the AI to surface its own insights. No exports. No SQL. The agent got lost once or twice—but with a little steering, it delivered a spot-on readout in minutes using only what it could see on the page.
Here’s what it surfaced as of November 24th:
DTC Insights
- Overall sales: 83% vs 2024—the gap widened this week
- New customers: 96% vs 2024—demand is fine
- Repeat customers: 68% vs 2024—this is the most concerning
- Ad spend: About same this year vs. last
- Conversion rate: Trending below last year so far
Amazon Insights
- Overall sales: About same this year vs. last
- New customers: 83% vs 2024—down meaningfully
- Repeat customers: 97% vs 2024—carrying the channel
- Ad spend: 172% vs 2024—brands spending a lot on Amazon but efficiency not showing yet
Email & SMS
- List growth: 75% vs 2024—fewer pop-ups across DTC sites?
- Receives: Flat YoY for email, SMS +81% YoY—heavier reliance on SMS
- Engagement: Email clicks +167%, SMS clicks +415% YoY—interest is massive
- Attributed revenue: 88% vs 2024—conversions lag despite huge click volume
The pattern became clear: High intent. High engagement. But unlike last year, repeat buyers are waiting. Consumers are engaged but holding wallets until the real BFCM deals drop. Without a clear “this is our best deal” message, they wait.
Real-Time Hourly Tracking
We tracked real-time sales from Thursday through Monday across a large set of 8-9 figure brands, updated hourly.
Thursday through Saturday
Thursday underperformed YoY, aligning with what we saw throughout early November: high engagement, slower conversion.
Black Friday matched 2024 almost hour-for-hour. Overall we ended +10% YoY. Sales began accelerating as early as 3am and peaked at 9am. Momentum maintained until 8pm before cooling down.
Saturday paced behind YoY. Late-day and evening hours filled in some of the gap.
Sunday Update
By Sunday, DTC was pacing ~95% vs last year, likely to finish close.
New customers carried DTC this year:
- New Customer Sales: +10% vs 2024
- Ad Spend: +5% vs 2024
Repeat customer sales sat at 78.6% of last year’s volume and wouldn’t catch up.
DTC vs Amazon Final Analysis
BFCM 2025 ended flat vs. last year, but DTC and Amazon told different stories.
DTC: More Efficient, Especially for Acquisition
- Spend up proportionally with new customer sales
- Clicks up proportionally with conversions
- Efficiency scaling linearly—there was likely more demand to tap
Amazon: Topline Growth, But No Efficiency Improvement
Amazon Ads became the #3 ad platform by spend, but Meta and Google maintain a lead on platform efficiency.
The Repeat Customer Split
Repeat customer sales were down on DTC but up on Amazon. Since you can’t email customers on Amazon, ads are likely the main way to remind them of your brand. This is why cracking DTC is so important—you own the retention channel.
Timing Is Everything
Consumers know the game. There’s no point buying “early” if they can scoop everything in one go on Friday/Monday at the best price. Scarcity is the only differentiator.
Email & SMS Behavior Shift
The most notable shift this year: fewer sends, way more engagement.
- Email Receives: -22% vs 2024
- Email Clicks: +39% vs 2024
- SMS Receives: +82% vs 2024
- SMS Clicks: +325% vs 2024
Brands are getting smarter at email and SMS. The game is not volume—it’s relevance. Send fewer, make more per send.
Key Takeaways
- Brands are spending more at slightly higher efficiency
- Brands are getting smarter at email/SMS
- New customer acquisition will be up YoY
- Repeat customer sales remain the biggest challenge and differentiator
The brands that crack repeat will have the edge heading into 2026.
Source: SourceMedium BFCM 2025 Benchmark Dashboard with real-time hourly tracking across DTC and Amazon channels. Live benchmarks at sourcemedium.com/bfcm.
